Who's Going To Fly The Plane? Forecasted Global Pilot Shortage
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The United States is facing a commercial pilot shortage over the next two decades that is certain to drive up the pay and benefits of America’s already best-paid work groups. And that same pilot shortage threatens to limit future air travel options for consumers as airlines are forced to reduce service on, or drop some routes entirely because they won't be able to find enough pilots to cover all t he flying they want to offer and that consumers would like.
A Boeing study issued last week estimates that the world’s airlines will need about 637,000 new pilots entering the industry over the next 20 years. And, to save you the time and the bother of pulling out your calculator, that figures out to be a little over 87 new pilots entering the commercial ranks every day for the next 20 years.
About 40% of that expected growth in the number of pilots globally actually will be needed just to replace pilots who’ll retire sometime in the 20 years. The remaining 60% of pilots to be added to the global industry in that time frame will be needed to cover all the new flying airlines are expected to add to their systems, especially in the rapidly-developing Asian air markets.
As a result a huge portion of that growth will take place outside the United States and North America, where the air travel market, while not entirely maxed out is growing slowly.
The Boeing study pegs the U.S. demand for new commercial pilots between now and 2036 at around 117,000. That’s equal to 16 new pilots a day entering the U.S. airline industry every day, or 5,840 a year, for 20 years continuously. To put that in perspective, U.S. carriers combined never have hired more than about 5,000 pilots in a single year, and have done that only a handful of times over the last 40 years.
For added perspective, hiring 5,000 a year would be equal to hiring as many pilots in just three years as giant American Airlines, the largest U.S. airline – and the largest in the world - has on its current payroll.
If the law of supply and demand plays out as one naturally would expect airlines likely will be raising pilot pay substantially and steadily over the next 20 years in order to attract the many new pilots they’ll need.
Read more at: forbes.com